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Steady increase in steel prices projects. Building materials industry look pretty

The restructuring and cut-off of domestic and foreign companies has prompted steel prices to remain strong and stable. Coupled with the steady growth of major domestic projects, the overall outlook for the construction materials industry is good. The performance in the third and fourth quarters of this year is expected to be delivered to good news. 

According to data from the Department of Trade and Industry, local steel prices decreased by 7.2% in October to MYR2,452 / tonne, which was lower than the record high of MYR2,642 recorded in September. Futher prices also dropped 4.4% to 2258t./mt Ringgit.

However, steel bars and steel billets soared 32.5% and 44.5% respectively over the previous year.

In contrast, the prices of Chinese steel bars and HRC coil dropped by 2.4% and 1% respectively in October due to a decrease in demand for winter construction, with RMB4,182 and RMB4,134 for each metric tonne reported.

Iron and steel industry restructuring at home and abroad to 
promote steel prices

UOB Kay Hian studies believe that although the steel price slightly callback, but still at a high level, thanks to continued restructuring of the steel industry at home and abroad.

"After a six-month period of steady increase in steel output in China, the number of steel mills dropped by 3.7% YoY to 71.8m tonnes in September, the Chinese government said at the Ninth Congress that it will reach the target of 50m tonnes of steel output to be reduced in the full year by August."

In addition, starting October 12, the Malaysian government will impose a 7.3 to 111.6% import tax on cold-rolled stainless steel in China, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, which is also good news for domestic steel companies.

As the price of steel dropped, the prices of raw materials and fuels also plunged last month, helping steel companies reduce costs. On a monthly basis, scrap fell 9.2% to US $ 330 / mt. Iron ore slipped 6% to US $ 71.5 / unit. Coal also dropped 11.3% to US $ 181.60 / mt.

UOB Kay Hian said that given the average selling price of steel products rose 16.4% quarter-to-quarter to RM2,417 / tonne, the performance of the steel mills in the third quarter is expected to be marked as green. As the demand rises, the performance of the steel mills in the fourth quarter is even more exciting .

The bank continued to be optimistic about the outlook for the construction materials industry and maintained its "overweight" rating. The bank advises investors to pay attention to the steelmakers actively promoting their capital management activities and think the valuation of these companies may increase.

Preferred stocks: 
Anyu resources poly steel plant

The bank's preferred building materials stocks include Anju Resources (ANNJOO, 6556, Mainboard Industrial Products Group) and Polymetal Steel Works (CHOOBEE, 5797, Mainboard Industrial Products Group).

CSC Steel (CSCSTEL, 5094, Mainboard Industrial Products Group) outperformed the broad band of building materials stocks after declining 3.3% in July, compared with an average increase of 16% for the building materials stocks tracked by the bank over the same period.

Closed today, CSC Steel and Poly Steel fell 2 sen and 1 cents respectively to settle at RM1.72 and RM2 at 39 sen. An Yu Resources added 3 sen to RM3 at 91 sen.

Source: http://www.klsescreener.com/

Palm oil + the Malaysian economy

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly, on November 6, 2017 - November 12, 2017.
Source http://www.theedgemarkets.com

Malaysia: Shares close lower on Wednesday

MALAYSIA share prices closed lower on wednesday with the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index down 3.99 point to 1743.93.Volume was 2.294billion. 

Gainers narrowly outnumbered losers 504 to 368.

Top Gainer were DIN045801028 [S], PMBTECH [S], 8443WB, PMETAL [S], TGUAN-LA, PANAMY, SUIWAH [S], TIMECOM [S], PETDAG [S], MISC [S].

Top Looser were BAT, NESTLE [S], PERSTIM [S], AJI [S], EKOVEST [S], GTRONIC [S], TM [S], SUCCESS [S], KLCC [S], KSENG

Top Active Stops were  EKOVEST [S], WD, PUC [S], UMWOG [S], HUAAN [S], HIBISCS [S], CUSCAPI [S], HUBLINE, TRIVE [S]

Mid-day Market Update on Budget Day 2018

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia staged a rally today in anticipation of positive perks to be announced by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak when he tables the Budget 2018 later today. 

Dealers said market sentiment picked up today. However, they said it remained to be seen if the gains can be sustained following the Budget 2018 announcement. Historically, the FBM KLCI tends to climb ahead of budget announcements. 

At midday, FBM KLCI closed 10.47 points, or 0.6% higher at 1,747.27 points. The index opened  4.54 points better at 1,741.34. 

In the broader market, there were 420 stocks advancing against 290 stocks declining while 400 counters unchanged. About 1.58 billion shares, valued at RM1.12bil, changed hands.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research said investors were still adopting a wait-and-see mode ahead of Budget 2018. 

“In the US, the focus would now shift to corporate tax reform details that may be unveiling soon as this should enhance the earnings in the future. Nevertheless, we think the Dow may experience a short term pullback amid overbought signals and the upside is likely to be capped around 23,500.

“Still, for the local bourse, stocks are likely to stay cautious ahead of Budget 2018. However, should there be any positive announcements in Budget 2018, we may expect short term recovery of key index towards 1,740-1,750. Also, oil and gas stocks could stay focus amid stronger Brent prices above US$59,” it said. 

The top three index movers were Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB), Sime Darby Bhd and Axiata Group Bhd. 

Heavyweight TNB, with a 7.68% weighting in the KLCI, was up 4.74%, or 68 sen, to RM15.02. The counter hit an all-time high earlier after climbing 94 sen jumped 94 sen, or 6.69% to RM15.30 as investors focused on a record dividend of RM3.5bil and ignored a marginally lower earnings in its latest quarterly report. 

Among the gainers were Nestle, which rose 30 sen to RM86.90, Mercury gained 26 sen to RM2.15 and Poly Glass climbed 20.5 sen to 59 sen. 

The top loser on Bursa Malaysia included British American Tobacco that fell 22 sen to RM40.56. Tasek lost 10 sen to RM12.60 while Genting Bhd fell nine sen to RM9.24.

Meanwhile, ringgit depreciated 0.19% to 4.2425 against the US dollar.

Overnight, most US stocks climbed amid a raft of robust earnings reports, speculation about the Federal Reserve’s next leader and congressional action on taxes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 71.61 points, or 0.31 percent, to 23,401.07.

Regional stocks finished largely higher at midday, tracking gains on Wall Street.  Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.9% to 21,937.82 points by midmorning, after hitting as high as 21,968.75, its strongest level since mid-1996. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.6% at 2,495.41 points while the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 5.4 points, or 0.1% to 5,921.7.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.84% to 28,438.43 points while Shanghai Composite index rose 0.28% to 3,417.12 points.

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/10/27/blue-chips-spur-market-rally

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Bursa Malaysia Market Updates

Bursa Malaysia followed the key Asian markets higher early Friday, rising on the wave of optimism on Wall Street.
At 9.45am, the FBM KLCI was up 2.53 points or 0.14% to 1,761.62. Turnover was 558 million shares valued at RM227.08mil. There were 266 gainers, 170 losers and 313 counters unchanged.

Asian stocks rose after optimism over US tax reform plans lifted Wall Street shares to new highs, while the dollar hovered near a seven-week peak following additional indications of solid economic growth, Reuters reported.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1%, poised for a 1.4% gain on the week. Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.3%, Australian stocks rose 0.7% and South Korea's KOSPI advanced 0.9%.At Bursa, BAT was up 48 sen to RM43.18, Sunway-WB 30 sen to 30.5 sen, Aeon Credit 20 sen to RM13 and Petron 12 sen to RM11.30.

KL Kepong rose 20 sen to RM24.98, Petronas Dagangan 14 sen to RM24.40 and Genting Plantations 12 sen to RM10.56 with just 100 shares done for each counter.

MRCB ordinary rights shares advanced 0.5 sen to 10 sen with 47.92 million units done. It was listed at 11 sen each.

Kossan fell 12 sen to RM6.80 while Hartalega lost four sen to RM6.84.
UEM Edgenta and Ajinomoto were down six sen to RM2.63 and RM19.96 while Tenaga fell four sen to RM14.20.

Renewed buying interest has emerged in E.A. Technique (M) Bhd, according to AllianceDBS Research.

EA Technique, which owns and operates marine vessels in Malaysia, saw its shares gained one sen, or 2.02% to 50.5 with more than 1.48 million shares traded.

AllianceDBS said EA Technique had on crossed over the 50 sen hurdle to reach an intraday high of 50.5 sen before settling at 49.5 sen on Thursday.

It added that a crossover of the 50 sen hurdle again would likely see Eatech trading upward with the next upside target pegged between 56 sen and 60 sen.

The research house said risk taking traders could establish a buying position at 48 sen on a small pullback.

“Once a buying position is established, a stop loss at 47 sen level must be placed for risk capital protection, and this 47 sen is to be followed by a trailing stop loss strategy.

“If you are prepared to take a trading loss risk of RM10 (excluding brokerage) for RM80 – RM120 potential profit, you may acquire 1,000 shares with a capital amount of RM480 assuming buying order is filled at 48 sen,” AllianceDBS said.

Shares in Sunway Construction Group Bhd (SunCon) were boosted in early trading on Friday after securing a RM2.18bil contract for LRT 3 project.

The counter gained five sen, or 2.17 to RM2.35 with more than 1.4 million shares unchanged hands. Its shares have risen more than 38% year-to-date.

SunCon has secured a contract worth RM2.18bil in connection with the LRT 3 project (Bandar Utama, Petaling Jaya  to Johan Setia, Klang) from Prasarana Malaysia Bhd.

The latest contract has boosted SunCon's year-to-date job wins to RM3.75bil and outstanding construction order book to RM6.5bil.

With the award, SunCon has now exceeded its target orderbook replenishment of RM2bil, the company said.

AmInvestment Bank Research has raised its FY17-19F forecasts on SunCon by 0.4%, 2% and 3% respectively.

It has also increased its fair value to RM2.65 from RM2.60 and maintain its “buy” call.

“Our fair value is based on 15x revised FY18F EPS, in line with our benchmark forward PE of 14-16x for large-cap listed construction companies,” the research house said.

“We continue to like SunCon for its good earnings visibility underpinned by a sizeable outstanding order book which will keep it busy for the next 2-3 years, its strong prospects for new job wins underpinned by various mega infrastructure projects, particularly the rail-related ones, in the market and its proven track record with various blue-chip clients in the market,” AmInvestment said.

Kenanga Investment Bank Research is retaining its outperform call for steel products manufacturer United U-Li Corporation but with a lower target price of RM4.95 from RM5.60 previously.
It said on Friday while its earnings assumptions remain unchanged (FY19E EPS of 35.2 sen), it believes the shift in market preference to upstream steel counters could dampen trading sentiments for the stock. 

“This is further seen in the lower trailing forward price earnings ratio (PER) during the year which lingered at its average rate. Hence, we tone down our valuation assumptions from 16.0 times PER (+ one standard deviation over the five-year mean) to 14.0 times (+0.5 standard deviation over the five-year mean). 

“Nonetheless, we still like the stock and view its valuation as undemanding given its: (i) leading market position, (ii) strong expected growth prospect (two-year forward compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28%), (iii) expanding margins, and (iv) net cash position,” it said.

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my

Bursa Malaysia: KLSE Market Updates

After snapping 10 straight days of losses on Tuesday, Bursa Malaysia seemed unsettled early Wednesday as investors awaited fresh positive catalysts to spur more buying interest.

At 9.41am, the FBM KLCI was down 0.4 of a point to 1,759.278. Turnover was 342.80 million shares valued at RM152.76mil. There were 207 gainers, 172 losers and 263 counters unchanged.
The ringgit rose 0.27% to 4.226 from the previous close of 4.2375 as he US dollar stepped back from a 1 1/2-month high against a basket of currencies on Wednesday.
Malaysia, and to a lesser degree Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, remain more exposed to exchange rate risk than other developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific as global financial conditions tighten, the World Bank said.
Companies and banks in these countries have sizable external debt, although foreign exchange reserves currently appear adequate, the Washington-based multilateral lender said in a report on Wednesday.

Here are other key details of the report:

• Monetary authorities need to be prepared to tighten their policy stance if capital outflows prompt currency weakness
• In the case of depreciation pressures in China, authorities should allow greater adjustment through relative prices and closely monitor financial sector vulnerabilities as monetary policy further tightens

Pre-election budget almost a certainty for Malaysia

ONE thing is almost certain about Malaysia's 2018 budget: with only 8-9 months left before the 13th Parliament is automatically dissolved, the fiscal blueprint is invariably going to be a pre-election budget geared to boost sentiment at the polls.

Zakaria’s return to FGV still up in the air

The resumption of duty by Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd’s (FGV) suspended chieftain Datuk Zakaria Arshad seems to be hanging in the balance. In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, the plantation group announced that its chief financial officer (CFO) Ahmad Tifli Mohd Talha will resume duty today. However, the announcement did not mention the status of Zakaria.

MySay: Religion and the pathology of capitalism

InTheKnow: Retail Negotiable Instruments of Deposit

Stock With Momentum: TPC Plus, MMAG Holdings, Glomac

MALAYSIA STOCKS ANALYSIS: KLSE Market risks breaking down

Backed by firmer commodity prices, Bursa Malaysia started out the week slightly above water, with the FBM Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) advancing 0.35 point to 1,771.39 on bargain hunting interest.

As usual, blue chips led the way in early business, but it was subdued later due to limited support from the big boys because the fresh exchange of barbs between North Korea and the US, prompting investors to adopt a cautious approach.

Elsewhere, most second and lower liners drifted lower, as an uninspiring performance in the Asia-Pacific region and a weaker ringgit against the greenback weighed on the local sentiment.

Given the dearth of market-stimulating leads, the key index subsequently moved sideways on sporadic buying alternating with intermittent profit-taking selling throughout the day, causing the key index to lose 1.9 points to 1,769.14 in range-bound trading on Monday.

Wall Street widened losses and technology-related shares tumbled on renewed selling the next day due to geopolitical uncertainty after North Korea’s foreign minister said US President Donald Trump’s tweets over the weekend were tantamount to a declaration of war.

In the region, stocks outside China and Hong Kong slumped against the backdrop of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Though crude oil prices spiked a hefty US$1.56 a barrel to US$52.22, the best level in five months and other commodities soared, they were not helping the local bourse this time round, as continuous depreciation of the local currency against the greenback kept most investors at bay.

Mirroring the frail offshore trend, the local bourse retreated from an intra-day high of 1,769.12 in early hours to a low of 1,761.21 in late morning, losing as much as 7.93 points before trimming losses in the afternoon to settle at 1,765.59, shedding 3.55 points in sluggish session on Tuesday.

There were no clues coming from the US, with the Dow falling for the third consecutive session and crude oil bulls pausing for a breather, as they awaited the release of Trump’s tax reform plan.

In Asia, Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai markets rose but Japan, South Korea and Australia fell, as investors were divided over the recent comments from Federal Chair Janet Yellen about the need to carry on gradual rate hikes.

Like the regional peers, Bursa Malaysia put up a mixed show.

While certain blue chips struggled, most second and lower liners posted gains on greater retail participation. Although the FBM KLCI lost 1.35 points to 1,764.24, advancers beat decliners by 401 to 376 in mid-week.

Thereafter, the local bourse stayed in consolidation mode and despite the Dow snapping its three-day losing streak and the black commodity rebounded, investors simply were not interested, as persistent weakness in the ringgit against the US dollar dampened investors’ mood.

In lacklustre trading, the key index shed 6.18 points on Thursday, thus carving out a negative signal.

And yesterday, Bursa Malaysia remained in correction mode, dropping an extra 2.48 points to 1,755.58 on follow-through selling.

Statistics: For the week, the principal index skidded 15.46 points, or 0.9% to 1,755.58 yesterday, versus 1,771.04 on Sept 22.

Turnover for the regular week was 12.695 billion units worth RM11.575bil, against 10.402 billion shares amounting to RM8.329bil done during the four-day holiday-shortened previous week.

Outlook: Bursa Malaysia fell for the second straight week, with the FBM KLCI touching the lowest level in more than two months.

The pullback was in line with our forecast, but the bearish tone caught many people by surprise.

Based on the daily chart, the local bourse recorded losses for 11 days and posted gains only for one day in the past 12 days.

Very clearly, the futile attempt to breach the 1,800 points psychological barrier on Sept 13, had brought about a sizeable negative impact on the market, exacerbated by increasing geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula and funds moving back to the developed economy betting on a rate hike.

The absence of “window dressing” activity or book-squaring for the third quarter by fund managers and the depreciation of the ringgit against the greenback, also were not helping the local sentiment.

Generally, the rising interest rate is not good for risky asset, such as equities and if investors continue to fret on this matter and remain nervous about tensions on the Korean Peninsula, it may result in the FBM KLCI breaking down from the 1,750 points concrete floor going forward.

Technically, the daily and weekly moving average convergence/divergence histogram are sending out a negative signal, but other indicators such as the daily slow-stochastic momentum index and the 14-day relative strength index are screaming an oversold condition, implying that a relief recovery is due.

To the upside, the FBM KLCI is expected to face a great challenge at 1,800 points.

In the case of a breakdown from the 1,750 points, the lowest 200-day simple moving average, resting at the 1,735 points and the 1,700 points level, will become vulnerable.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/09/30/market-risks-breaking-down/#HkUl6UHtoLdTERuS.99

Stocks With Momentum

Carimin, Hubline, Icon, Alam, Bright, Frontken, SHL

theedgemarkets.com highlighted seven stocks with momentum at Bursa Malaysia’s afternoon market close today. It showed three with positive momentum and four with negative momentum.

Stocks with positive momentum were:

Carimin Petroleum Bhd – up three sen at 58 sen

Hubline Group Bhd – up 0.5 sen at 10.5 sen

Icon Offshore Bhd – up one sen at 31.5 sen

Stocks with negative momentum were:

Alam Maritim Resources Bhd – down 0.5 sen at 22.5 sen

Bright Packaging Industry Bhd – up 0.5 sen at 27.5 sen

Frontken Corp Bhd – up two sen at 41.5 sen

SHL Consolidated Bhd – down two sen at RM2.82

The list of stocks with momentum is generated using a proprietary mathematical algorithm highlighting stocks with a build-up in trading volume and price. The algorithm differentiates between stocks that exhibit positive (+ve) momentum and negative (-ve) momentum. 

This list is not a buy or sell recommendation. It merely tells you which stocks are seeing higher than normal volume and price movements. 

The share price may move up or down from this point. But the “+ve” (suggesting a rising price trend on volume) and “-ve” (suggesting a falling price trend on volume) indicators should give readers a better idea of what the market is buying and when to sell.  Note also that momentum generally only persists for a short period of time.

However, each stock has an accompanying fundamental score and valuation score to help readers evaluate the attractiveness of the stocks, if they want to ride the momentum.

Bursa Malaysia Stock Market May Come Under Pressure

Riding on the strength of an overwhelmingly bullish Wall Street the previous Friday, Asian markets shrugged off geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula and steadied on renewed buying momentum at the start of the week.

South Korea led way in the region, with the Kospi Index spiking a hefty 1.4% while the Japanese market was shut for a public holiday.
In an unprecedented move, Bursa Malaysia had a muted response, with the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index (FBM KLCI) dropping 3.4 points to 1,782.93.

Though the market made several attemps to climb higher during the day, it was not successful, as profit-taking selling in the quality issues was a drag.

At the final bell, the key index eased 2.67 points to 1,783.66 on Monday. The next day on Wall Street, the Dow had a record finish for the fifth consecutive session while the S&P set an all-time high for the second day in a row, led by banking shares.

But oil prices were barely changed amid worries about a built up in crude stockpiles.

In the region, with the exception of Japanese equities, which rallied nearly 2% on resumption of business after the long weekend, most markets slipped as investors moved to the sidelines ahead of a two-day US Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

On the domestic front, the local bourse mirrored the Asian peers and slide deeper into the negative zones on lack of support from investors.

Meanwhile, a weaker ringgit against the greenback weighed on the local sentiment.

As usual, blue chips topped the losers board on foreign selling. Elsewhere, most second and lower liners also struggled, with retail players heading to the sidelines.

In lacklustre trade, the FBM KLCI slide from an intra-day peak of 1,783.68 in early business to a low of 1,775.30 in late session before trimming losses slightly to close down seven points at 1,776.66 on Tuesday.

Thereafter, the bulls on Wall Street continued to set a series of records, boosted by a rally in financial stocks but in Asia, shares turned mixed to marginally lower in cautious mood as investors awaited signals from the US Federal Reserve policy meting on when it will hike rates again and start shrinking its balance sheet.

Pending a clearer picture to emerge, the local bourse stayed in correction mode due to limited support from the big boys while the retail investors remained on the sidelines.

In subdued session, the key index tested the downside of 1,770 points in late trade before bouncing off slightly to end 3.08 points lower at 1,773.58 on Wednesday.

As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged after a two-day meeting and although the Dow sustained rally into the uncharted territory and most regional markets firmed Bursa Malaysia extended the consolidation process, as jittery investors fret about the possibility of one more US interest rate hike by the end of the year and the withdrawal of about US$4.2 trillion in holdings of US Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

Petronas Gas and British American Tobacco topped declines, dragging the FBM KLCI down 2.54 points to 1,771.04 in another lacklustre session on Thursday.

Bursa Malaysia was shut for a public holiday yesterday.

Statistics: Week-on-week, the bellwether FBM KLCI skidded 15.29 points, or 0.9%, to 1,771.04 on Thursday, versus 1,786.33 on Sept 15. Turnover for the four-day holiday-curtailed week amounted to 10.402 billion units valued at RM8.329bil, compared with 13.126 billion shares worth RM10.766bil done during the previous regular week.

Outlook: Bursa Malaysia was in a correction mode the past week, with the FBM KLCI pulling further away from the recent three-month peak, as a futile attempt to penetrate the 1,800-point psychological barrier a week ago prompted investors to take some money off the table.

The more-hawkish-than-expected tone from Janet Yellen at the latest policy meeting and the plans to begin the unwinding of a decade of aggressive monetary stimulus added to the downbeat mood.

While a rate hike in the US is negative for risky assets, the Fed’s tightening plan may lead to capital outflows from the region and Malaysia may not be spared.

Combined with the latest move from US President Donald Trump ordering new sanctions on North Korea, tensions in the Korean Peninsula is likely to ratchet up and put more investors on the defensive mode.

In the absence of buying incentives on the horizon, the local bourse will probably extend the correction phase this week.

Based on the daily chart, the key index was only maintaining a slim three-point margin above the nine-month-old ascending trendline, resting approximately at 1,768 points. A breakdown from this trendline, if it happens, may see the FBM KLCI falling towards the 1,750-point floor on persistent liquidation.

Technically, indicators are looking very good too. While the weekly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram resumed the downward expansion against the weekly trigger line to retain the bearish signal, the daily MACD issued a sell call during intra-week trading, implying the local bourse is expected to be under pressure until a fresh bout of buying interest emerges.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/09/23/bursa-may-come-under-pressure/#JvJs9oWy8Ejh8qB0.99