Bursa Malaysia: Weekly Technical Trading Analysis and Forecast for week ahead

Weekly wrap of KLCI: The week started with opening 7.13 points positive, performed with buying sentiments in the beginning and maintained a mixed movement throughout and ended in a positive note. 

The FBM KLCI index gained 16.50 points or 0.89% on Friday. The Finance Index increased 0.65% to 16422.79 points, the Properties Index up 0.21% to 1337.95 points and the Plantation Index rose 1.11% to 7749.53 points. The market traded within a range of 12.87 points between an intra-day high of 1862.58 and a low of 1849.71 during the session.
The KLCI ended the week on a positive note, closing at 1862.58 points. The performance of our benchmark index was in line with overnight gains in US market as positive corporate earnings and rise in crude oil prices overshadowed the weaker performance in US new home sales data in March.
FBM KLCI Week's Performance
Open: 1862.58
High: 1862.58
Low: 1849.71
Close: 1862.58
Change (Points): 16.72
% Change: 0.90%
Market Forecast for week ahead: Market is moving by taking correction on weekly basis it is forcasted to be on positive note next week. As Malaysian government expecting economy to grow between 4.5% and 5.5% this year on the back of strong economic fundamentals. And if Malaysia achieved its fiscal target for 2015, it would be a record of six consecutive years of fiscal deficits.
Weekly Technical view on KLCI
Support 1: 1832
Support 2: 1815
Support 3: 1789
Resistance 1: 1856
Resistance 2: 1880
Resistance 3: 1890
Technical indicators: RSI for this week is 60.649 with CCI at 129.338. Besides, difference line of MACD 8.942 and crossed its signal line -1.022.
ECONOMIC FACTORS:

• Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz said any changes in Malaysia's monetary policy will be based on domestic consideration while stressing that the economy is still staying on a steady growth path. It is anticipated that the central bank may start to cut the overnight policy rate by 25 to 50 basis points.
• Interest rates hike by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) must happen this year as the uncertainty on the timing of the hike is causing volatility in regional markets.
• The ringgit’s decline is more influenced by non-economic factors and an over-reliance on oil and gas revenue, as well as political issues.
• Moody’s Investors Service today assigned a definitive A3 senior unsecured rating to the US dollar trust certificates (sukuk) issued by Malaysia Sovereign Sukuk Bhd, a special purpose vehicle established by the Malaysian government.An aggregate interest of over US$9 billion (RM32.67 billion) drawn from the issuance of Malaysia's US$1.5 billion sukuk recently signalled foreign investors' confidence in the country's long-term economy fundamentals, a treasury official said.
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to cut the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25bps in the second half of the year, due to weaker consumer spending, investments and exports that would lead to significantly slower growth.

Bursa Malaysia Weekly Technical Analysis

Weekly wrap of KLCI: The week started with a higher note The FBM KLCI index lost 5.08 points or 0.27% on Friday. Finance Index fell 0.58% to 16325.86 points, Properties Index up 0.15% to 1322.98 points and Plantation Index down 0.30% to 7794.55 points. Market traded within a range of 8.49 points between an intra-day high of 1849.78 and a low of 1841.29 during the session.

The KLCI extended its losing streak after closing lower at 1844.31 points. The overnight gains in U.S. markets failed to lift our local bourse as absence of positive lead in domestic market weighed on market sentiment.
Market Forecast for week ahead: The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) is expected to continue its upside momentum and trade within a narrow range of 1,840 to 1,850 points next week, driven by favourable external factors. The momentum would be driven by positive global macro data, reduced geopolitical tension in Iran and broad stimulus from the European Central Bank as well as The People’s Bank of China.
The local equities market ended the first quarter of 2015 firmer on hopes that China would adopt further stimulus measures to bolster growth, supported by reduced Iran-Greece geopolitical tension.
Technical indicators: RSI for this week is 57.544 with CCI at 131.204. Besides, difference line of MACD 2.889 and crossed its signal line 5.784.
ECONOMIC FACTORS:

• The ringgit ended sharply higher against the US dollar in tandem with most emerging Asian currencies on expectation that the US Federal Reserve would postpone increasing interest rates. It rose for a third week as a rally in crude helped shield the region’s only major oil- exporter from bets the U.S. will raise interest rates.
• Shell Malaysia has started construction of the largest upstream oil and gas (O&G) laboratory in Sarawak for deepwater exploration and production activities. It will be operational by end-2016.
• Asian shares advanced close to recent highs on Friday, and were on track for weekly gains, while the dollar gave up some of its overnight rise.
• Employees Provident Fund recorded total annual contribution of RM57.2 billion last year.
• Malaysia’s Industrial Production Index (IPI) grew 5.2 per cent in February 2015 compared with the same month a year ago, driven by growth in the indices of manufacturing, mining and electricity components.
• Malaysia’s crude palm oil stocks (CPO) stocks fell by 4.5 per cent to 907,555 tonnes at end-March 2015 against 950,362 tonnes recorded in the previous month.
• Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) shares on Bursa Malaysia rose this morning on news of an expected increase in electricity demand, moving forward.
• Homegrown condom manufacturer, Karex Bhd shares’ on Bursa Malaysia rose in early trade after the company announced that it is eyeing two to three acquisitions this year.
• Newly established companies or existing companies that expand operations into less developed areas will be eligible for 100 per cent income tax exemption for up to 15 years.

Singapore & Malaysia Stocks: Daily Technical Report 4-March

Market Review for STI: Singapore share prices opened lower with the STI down 1.44 points to 3,420.67.Singapore shares rose after new data showed China's services sector grew modestly in February as new orders rose at their quickest pace in three months.
 Market forecast for STI: Still STI is not in one trend we may expect it will move in the range of 3388 to 3456
Technical Indicators: RSI is at 51 and CCI is at 24.
Important Factor for today:-

• It may be the most expensive city in the world for expatriates but Singapore is also once again the top city in Asia for this group when it comes to quality of life.
• China Oilfield Technology Services Group will be delisted after the loss-making company failed to meet regulatory requirements for removal from the SGX watch-list.
• Private equity funds worldwide sold a record US$456 billion ($621 billion) worth of investments last year, 67% more than in 2013, driven by a handful of mega deals and buoyant IPO markets in 1H2014
•  CIMB Research believes listed property developers' stock prices should sustain its growth going forward, if asset recycling activities start to occur via a trade sale, divestment to private funds, or to Singapore REITS.
• Sete Brasil is looking for a solution with its lenders and shareholders with options ranging from restructuring debt to a full write-off, according to Upstream, the global Oil & Gas news source.
• CNA Group announced a proposed placement of some 119 million new shares priced at S$0.0335 each that could rise up to S$3.79 million in net proceeds.
• Blumont Group on Tuesday said that it has obtained in-principle approval from the Singapore Exchange for the proposed placement of 100 million new shares priced at S$0.01705 each that could rise up to S$1.67 million in net proceeds.

Market Review for KLCI:
The FBM KLCI index gained 4.29 points or 0.24% on Wednesday. Finance Index increased 0.01% to 16103.45 points, Properties Index up 0.01% to 1326.84 points and Plantation Index rose 0.19% to 7988.44 points. Market traded within a range of 6.87 points between an intra-day high of 1826.05 and a low of 1819.18 during the session.
Market Review for KLCI: The FBM KLCI index gained 4.29 points or 0.24% on Wednesday. Finance Index increased 0.01% to 16103.45 points, Properties Index up 0.01% to 1326.84 points and Plantation Index rose 0.19% to 7988.44 points. Market traded within a range of 6.87 points between an intra-day high of 1826.05 and a low of 1819.18 during the session.
The KLCI extended yesterday’s gains by ending 4.29 points higher at 1825.54, despite the lower overnight close on Wall Street due to slight decline in February's auto sales. The gain in our benchmark index was underpinned by buying in heavyweight counters, led by YTL Corp.
Market forecast for KLCI: Higher closing of today’s trading session indicating market could be bullish by maintaining volume. Still there is a resistance to break 1830.
Technical indicators: RSI stood below the center line at 64.559 with its CCI at 121.129 Difference line of MACD performed at 12.305 above its signal line which performed at 12.444.
ECONOMIC FACTORS:

• Malaysia is on track to reach high income status in five years due to skillful economic management amidst an uneven global recovery, says the International Monetary Fund. Robust domestic demand supported by sound macro-financial policies is driving strong, non-inflationary growth in the face of uncertain external conditions and declining commodity prices.
• Shares of Mega First Corporation Bhd (MFCB) is bound to reach its highest since 1995 after it signed a shareholders agreement with Laos' Electricite du Laos (EDL) and two other parties to develop Don Sahong hydropower project.
• Foreign funds took profit on Malaysian equities on Tuesday with net selling at RM162.30mil after two days of net buying. foreign funds bought RM545.8mil of Malaysian equities but sold RM708.1mil.
• 4Q earnings for 2014 were uninspiring despite more corporates meeting its earnings expectations.
• Malaysia's sovereign rating is unlikely to see a downgrade, despite a possible widening in the deficit due to lower oil revenues and high household debt because of its strong fundamentals.
• The Malaysia Competition Commission (MyCC) has imposed a total financial penalty of RM247,730 on 15 infringing enterprises in relation to a price fixing agreement between 24 enterprises who are members of the Sibu Confectionery and Bakery Association (SCBA).
• The Securities Commission Malaysia (SC), the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Thailand and the Singapore Exchange (SGX) have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to establish a Streamlined Review Framework for the Asean Common Prospectus.
• Ni Hsin Resources Bhd will proceed with its investment in loss making Helios Photovoltaic Sdn Bhd, confident that it will become a major revenue and profit contributor to the group in the future.
• CIMB Group Holdings Bhd and Mitsubishi Corp yesterday launched the Asean Industrial Growth Fund (AIGF LP) to channel Japanese corporates looking to invest in mid-tier Asean companies.
• Malaysia's exports likely increased 3.0 per cent in January from a year earlier while the pace of import growth probably slowed to 2.0 per cent.

KLSE Stock Market Report for KLCI

Market Review for KLCI: The FBM KLCI index gained 19.98 points or 1.14% on Wednesday. Finance Index increased 0.30% to 15603.35 points, Properties Index up 0.32% to 1301.94 points and Plantation Index rose 0.92% to 7838.32 points. Market traded within a range of 18.63 points between an intra-day high of 1770.09 and a low of 1751.46 during the session.

KLCI soared to 1770.09 points, mainly led by the strong gains made by PPB Group and Genting Malaysia. Trading sentiment was positive after the development expenditure in the Revised Budget kept unchanged.

FBMKLCI Day Performance

Open- 1752.9

High-1770.09

Low- 1751.46

Close- 1770.09

Change(Points)- 19.98

% Change- 1.14%

Volume- 2161.6M

Rise- 559

Fall- 287

Unch- 1797

Market forecast for KLCI: Market has maintained an uptrend, technically it stood at the resistance level 1770. Once it break that it will attain heavy gains.

Technical indicators: RSI stood below the center line at 58.058 with its CCI at 112.239. Difference line of MACD performed at -0.886 above its signal line which performed at -5.820.

KLCI LEVELS

Support 1- 1725

Support 2- 1706

Support 3- 1670

Resistance 1- 1770

Resistance 2- 1780

Resistance 3- 1830

ECONOMIC FACTORS:

• The ringgit closed lower against the US dollar today on concerns about Malaysia’s economic growth following continuous decline of oil price amid stronger US economic outlook.
• Bursa Malaysia closed higher today, supported by gains in small-capitalized counters as well as plantation and industrial-related shares, a dealer said. As at 5pm, the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) stood at 1,770.09, up 19.98 points after moving between 1,751.46 and 1,770.09 throughout the day. PPB Group, Petronas Chemicals and Sime Darby were the top contributors to the composite index, adding RM1.20, 17 sen and 21 sen, to RM15.20, RM5.11 and RM9.50 respectively.

Bursa Malaysia - KLSE Daily Technical Outlook 20th Jan

The FBM KLCI index lost 3.20 points or 0.18% on Tuesday. Finance Index increased 0.18% to 15556.08 points, Properties Index up 0.05% to 1297.81 points and Plantation Index down 0.22% to 7766.66 points. Market traded within a range of 8.70 points between an intra-day high of 1754.34 and a low of 1745.64 during the session.

KLCI ended marginally lower at 1750.11 points after Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak announced the revised Budget. Investor’s reaction to the announced economic intervention measures was lukewarm as it offered little surprise to the market.

FBMKLCI Day Performance
Open  1750.11
High  1754.34
Low  1745.64
Close  1750.11
Change(Points)  -3.20
% Change  -0.18%
Volume  2014.7M
Rise  418
Fall  391
Unch  1825

Market forecast for KLCI: Market is still in a side way movement, though it is anticipated that market will move upside in this week as technically there is a resistance at 1770.

Technical indicators: RSI stood below the center line at 51.227 with its CCI at 42.518. Difference line of MACD performed at -3.267 above its signal line which performed at -7.053.

KLCI  LEVELS
Support 1  1725
Support 2  1706
Support 3  1670
Resistance 1  1758
Resistance 2  1770
Resistance 3  1789
 ECONOMIC FACTORS:

• The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth projections for emerging and developing Asian economies, including Malaysia. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the Asean 5 – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam will likely grow by 4.5% in 2014 (0.2% cut from its previous outlook) and 5.2% in 2015 (0.1% cut from previous outlook) . These five countries are projected to grow by 5.3% in 2016.
• Mass Rapid Transit Corporation Sdn Bhd (MRT Corp) applauds the government’s decision to maintain the development expenditure of RM48.5 billion for 2015, and to proceed with the implementation of various infrastructure projects including MRT Line 2.
• The central bank said the current interest level at 3.25 per cent is still accommodative.
• The government today revised the country’s fiscal deficit target for 2015 to 3.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), up from the 3.0 per cent set out in the Budget, in the wake of falling oil prices.
• The current economic problems are not a manifestion of something Malaysia has done wrongly as far as economic management is concerned but rather due to external shocks no thanks to the slump in crude oil prices.

Malaysia KLSE Review: KLCI Technical Analysis 19th Jan

The FBM KLCI index gained 9.74 points or 0.56% on Monday. Finance Index increased 1.05% to 15527.53 points, the Properties Index up 0.85% to 1297.22 points and the Plantation Index rose 0.10% to 7783.63 points. market traded within a range of 9.62 points between an intra-day high of 1755.12 and a low of 1745.50 during the session.

KLCI ended higher at 1753.31 points, buoyed by a rise in crude oil prices. The gains on Wall Street last Friday also helped supporting market sentiment after U.S. consumer sentiment surged to 11-year high.

FBMKLCI Day Performance

Open-1745.50

High-1755.12

Low-1745.50

Close-1753.31

Change(Points)-9.74

% Change-0.56%

Volume-1849.7M

Rise-486

Fall-324

Unch-1824

Market forecast for KLCI: Market is still in a side way movement, though it is anticipated that market will move upside in this week as technically there is a resistance at 1750.

Technical indicators: RSI stood below the center line at 52.499 with its CCI at 55.389. Difference line of MACD performed at -4.224 above its signal line which performed at -7.999.

KLCI LEVELS

Support 1- 1725

Support 2- 1706

Support 3- 1670

Resistance 1- 1758

Resistance 2- 1770

Resistance 3- 1789

ECONOMIC FACTORS:

• Hong Leong Investment (HLIB) Bank expects AirAsia Group to register stronger earnings in 2015, given the significant benefits from lower jet fuel price.
• Property developer, GuocoLand (M) Bhd, is bullish its flagship project, Damansara City, will be launched by the first quarter of this year.
• SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd’s shares rose this morning after the group announced it was rejoining the Security Commission (SC)’s syariah list with a US$2.3 billion Islamic loan.
• Genting Bhd today announced that DNA Electronics Limited (DNAe), its indirect 82.1 per cent-owned subsidiary, has completed the acquisition of the entire issued share capital of NanoMR, Inc (NanoMR) for a total cash consideration of about US$24.0 million (US$1= RM3.57).
• Malaysia's annual inflation rate is expected to have eased slightly in December, a Reuters poll showed, as falling fuel prices offset the effects of higher food costs from severe floods.

KUALALAMPUR MALAYSIA Weekly Technical view on KLCI

The week started with FBM KLCI index gained 2.64 points at 1730.10. During the week, performance of our benchmark index was underpinned by strong gains in CIMB following news suggesting its mega merger with RHB capital and MBSB may be called off. Market sentiment was cautious amid further weakness in oil prices while investors remained concerned about the global economy after the World Bank has cut its global growth forecast on subdued performance in the EURO zone, Japan and some major economies. Yesterday KLCI ended higher after oil prices rebound the most in more than 2 1/2 years from close to six year low. This whole week index shown side way movement of almost 28 points.

The FBM KLCI index lost 1.43 points or 0.08% at 1743.57 on Friday. Finance Index fell 0.17% to 15366.83 points, Properties Index up 0.03% to 1286.28 points and Plantation Index down 0.40% to 7776.16 points. Market traded within a range of 13.89 points between an intra-day high of 1746.24 and a low of 1732.35 during the session.

The index went down following weighed down by selling in Petronas-linked and banking counters. Investor’s risk appetite were dampened by the weak lead from overnight US market due to drop in crop price and the surprise move of Swiss National Bank scrapping its three-year policy of capping the Swiss franc against the euro.

FBMKLCI Week's Performance
Open: 1740.19
High: 1746.24
Low: 1732.35
Close: 1743.57
Change (Points): 11.13
% Change: 0.64%

Market Forecast for week ahead:

The global market tone came under fresh pressure from ongoing weakness in currency and commodity markets, highlighted by a huge overnight weekly decline in the euro and yen as well as oil and copper. It is anticipated that market will move upside in the coming week as technically there is a resistance at 1750.

Technical indicators:

RSI for this week is 38.801 with CCI at 98.804. Besides, difference line of MACD 29.310 overlapping its signal line (22.339).

Support 1: 1725
Support 2:1706
Support 3:1670
Resistance 1: 1750
Resistance 2: 1770
Resistance 3: 1789

ECONOMIC FACTORS:

• SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd signed a US$2.3 billion Islamic loan with 11 lenders - the largest Islamic facility till date. The loan will convert a portion of its existing conventional multi-currency facility (MCF) borrowings into a Shariah based facility with 11 local, regional and international banks.
• AirAsia Group to register stronger earnings in 2015, given the significant benefits from lower jet fuel price. It is assumed average yields (including surcharge) to drop 7.6 per cent in 2015 after an assumed decline of 5.8 per cent in 2014.
• The ringgit opened marginally lower against the US dollar this morning due to lack of buying support.
• Celcom Axiata Bhd will invest RM100 million in capital expenditure (capex) to ensure connectivity in flood-prone states in the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Its CEO said the telco recognised the importance of full connectivity in times of crisis – not only for residents within the affected areas, but also to the relief teams and organisations working round the clock to deliver aid.
• MISC Bhd’s share price on the Bursa Malaysia slipped after the company aborted the sale of its wholly-owned subsidiary, MISC Integrated Logistics Sdn Bhd (MILS).
• Asian currencies tend to depreciate against the US dollar in the 12 month period prior to a peak in oil prices and this time around, the peso is likely to be the worst performing Asian currencies, according to a study.
• The government should review the budget given the significant change in oil prices, said CIMB Group Holdings Bhd chairman. One of the targets that external observers are watching for is the budget deficit and the target of 3% budget deficit by 2015. And also here has to be clarity in terms of where Petronas dividends are going to be and what are the main drivers because the dividends are not just a function of oil price but also a function of the group's capital expenditure plans.
• The Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Miti), which aims to see intra-Asean trade grow from 24% of total trade now to 30% to 35% in the next few years, said the harmonisation of rules and regulations for the Asean Economic Community (AEC) is still a work-in-progress. The challenge is because Asean is made up of 10 countries that can be divided into different tiers in terms of per capita income, population and economic development.
• Bright Packaging Industry Bhd has entered into a purchase-sale agreement with Zao Philip Morris Izhora, a multinational tobacco manufacturing company in Russia to supply aluminium foil worth US$15 million. Intra- Asian trade is likely to expand from 24 percent to 34 percent, spurred by zero-duty incentives on Asian Free Trade Area (AFTA).
• Bursa Malaysia Securities has issued an unusual market activity query to IFCA MSC Bhd due to the recent rise in the price and volume of its shares. The counter closed 4.5 sen lower at 95 sen, with 42.05 million shares changing hands.